The other day, I found a SNS message on the Internet.

"I found a person whose name "Tomoichi Ebata". His works are very interesting. I wonder why he has not tried suiside by himself"

At first, I thuoght "what does it mean?" however, I came to mind immediately.

-----

Because all of my columns shows only

"Desperate future"

In addition, we are offering three sets of logic, numerical values, and simulation.

-----

However, I also seem strange.

So, I wondered, "Why did I not commit suicide until now, drawing a 'desperate future'?"

The answer came out quite easily (about 5 seconds).

"Until I confirm the results of your simulation with my own eyes, I never die"

That's because the thoughts lead to my attachment to life.

This is the human nature of both as an engineer and a researcher.

"A system that collects about 100 million questionnaire data on SNS, inserts it into a DB (database), and aggregates, can be created on even my personal computer at home"

"The former Governor of Tokyo, who is not an IT engineer, would have spoken without knowing the details."

Probably, I think that this kind of system construction can be done in one day.

Such as recording about 100 million records, can be processed by a script language and the data aggregation can be completed in a few minutes by a single operator.

-----

This time, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare implemented

"A nationwide survey conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using the free communication application "LINE" to combat new coronavirus"

is "unusual jackpot system", I think.

Because, this system

can process data for users, as well as system managers, quickly, cheaply, and easily.

can secure anonymity.

is easy to collect meaningful answers (uninterested humans will ignore it if they take time to enter wrong answers)

In this way, this system can collect data of tens of millions of people at a low cost. Such a “delicious system” is rare.

-----

By the way, I ran a simulation of 300 million people on my home computer 10,000 times in a row, and it took about 14 hours.

In other words, data processing for 300 million people is completed in about 0.5 seconds.

If someone ask me whether memory writing by simulation can be considered as similar to DB writing, I can say that recent DB writing may be faster than memory writing (It is true)

Writing and searching with 100 million DBs by LINE this time could have taken a few seconds if the total CPU time was used.

-----

The former Governor of Tokyo may have had the image of "several dozens of people print data results and hit calculators" in data aggregation.

But that image is not correct.

"Aggregation operations and documentation were completed within a few hours by one engineer."

I estimated that.

That's because even an engineer, like me, can complete about 100 million lines of SQL processing in this time.

The performance of big data and SNS message processing these days has sometimes surprised me even on site.

So his remarks could not have been helped.

-----

Nevertheless, if he is saying something that is not his specialty, it is better to spend a little time researching it himself or asking an expert before speaking.

We should be especially careful when criticizing something or someone.

I write this diary with my self-awareness.

Since I am not interested in professional baseball, I have no special feelings that the official match of professional baseball will not be held.

Since I am not interested in professional baseball, I have no special feelings that the official match of professional baseball will not be held.

However, I was shocked that

"My youth romantic comedy is wrong. the last episode" is postponed

-----

Of course, to maintain the quality of the work, I endure a year, but still,

"Issuance of Declaration of Emergency based on the Act on Special Measures against Pandemic Influenza"

The announcement of this broadcast postponement was quite hard for me at the day of the issuance.

-----

In that feeling, for no particular reason, I was reading the whole sentence of

"Law against Special Measures against New Influenza"

-----

Article 32 contains the contents of the Declaration of Emergency (paragraph 1), the period, place and outline.

What I found interesting was that the validity period of the emergency declaration was clearly stated as "not more than two years" (paragraph 2) (with an extension provision (paragraph 3)).

This seems to be due to past cases where any pandemic will become controllable within approximately two years (e.g. Spanish cold).

-----

I also examined the conditions for triggering an emergency declaration based on this law.

There was a statement that "specified by a separate ordinance", so I looked for it.

The grounds clause is

Article 6 (2) of this

(1) "When the route that could be infected cannot be identified"

and

(2)"When the public has taken actions that may spread the new influenza and the like to the public"

I roughly estimated the above two.

-----

Here, I went back to the Act on Special Measures for Countermeasures against New Influenza, and tried to pick up the subject appearing here.

The names of the nations, governments, municipalities, regular public institutions, designated local public institutions, and titles such as the Prime Minister and prefectural governors. And "Citizen" appears under the item (Obligation of the people) (Article 4).

Speaking of the people's obligations, I recall the "duty of education (Article 26, paragraph 2)", "duty of work (Article 27, paragraph 1)" and "duty of tax payment (Article 30)" written in the Constitution of Japan .

However, I haven't seen anything that mentions "national obligations" in the provisions of laws other than the Constitution, so I felt uncomfortable and fresh.

-----

And the first thing I look for when reading articles is "penalties".

In this law, Articles 76 to 78 had provisions.

(1) Persons who did not cooperate in providing goods shall be sentenced to imprisonment of 6 months or less or a fine of 300,000 yen or less.

(2) Persons who did not cooperate with on-site inspection (assuming requisition etc.) are fined up to 300,000 yen

(3) Not only the individual (1) and (2) above, but also the corporation to which the individual belongs is fined together (both penalties).

Although relatively weak, there are penalties with criminal penalties.

Well,the law may be expecting the "exposed person" effect.

-----

However, according to the provisions, it seems that maid cafes and bar bars at midnight can be "requested" but not "prohibited"

(I couldn't find it, so please let me know who found it)

So, I think that they will issue an additional government ordinance and bring "compensation for damages to business" as a "hostage" and a "virtual ban".

Well, as anyone who has learned the law knows, the phrase "as stipulated by separate ordinance" is quite "childish".

This is because the separate ordinance does not require the approval of the Diet and can be included by the Cabinet.

like "cheats at rock-paper-scissors".(However, penal regulations cannot be imposed on separate ordinances (Article 73 of the Constitution of Japan)).

-----

I think "when I access the primary information, I can know a lot more than a news program that repeats the same thing", but my great time has passed.

Let's get back to the story.

I was shocked that

"My youth romantic comedy is wrong. the last episode" is postponed

Just as I was shocked, I can think that some people are also shocked to postpone the official professional baseball game or postpone the professional league match.

In that way, we can share our disappointment. no matter how different the vectors are.

I watched an animation whose title is "ReLIFE" on Amazon PRIME.

It was a good anime.

Again, I said it was a very good anime.

-----

Here, let's dig the animation base on my science brain in a fun.

- What is the business model of the “ReLIFE Institute”?

Huge drug development costs, Monitoring period of the monitoring target, Falsification of recording media, Erasing the memories of the people involved after the experiment,

When we apply the labor cost of a certain laboratory, I think that the experiment cost for one subject is at least 40 million yen per year and 200 million yen at the maximum.

What is the cost-effectiveness?

The effect obtained is too small against the effect of the experiment.

- Is the after-effect of medicine OK?

If aging and anti-aging processes are performed overnight, the load on brain cells as well as body cells will be enormous.

Well, even if the subject knows the risks well, manipulating memory for humans who are environmental factors (students around subjects) can be a humanitarian problem, and moreover, a significant violation of human rights.

-----

I talk this story to junior daughter. She disgrunted me

"That's working well, Mind your own business !"

Well, I think "she is right".

Post-law and retrospective law are not allowed in a rule-of-law state.

The post-mortem / retrospective law is to create a law later and add a penalty retroactively.

If we do this by law, nobody will know what will later become "crime".

There are so many crimes in the world that can not be forgiven emotionally, morally and humanely.

Nevertheless, the rule of law is that "you cannot judge a person unless it is based on the law, not the emotions, thoughts, or personal beliefs."

To continue enacting laws to prevent future crimes, based on the lament, anger and sadness of many people.

This is the fate and pride of the people of the rule of law.

-----

Even if you don't talk about the "rule of law", it is "irrational" to judge past cases based on current judgment criteria.

For example, physical punishment and power harassment in the educational setting were called "love whip" and sexual harassment was called "communication."

However we can say, "So what?" coldy.

That means,

Regardless of past common sense or social wisdom, current corporal punishment, abuse, power harassment, and sexual harassment are judged solely by current common sense and social wisdom.

We don't care anything, no matter who claims what based on past values

Therefore, no matter how tedious we are, we must always catch up our current common sense and justice, and keep changing ourselves

-----

It keeps changing every day (or every hour if you are bad) that virus infections without treatment and social responses.

No one could have imagined this two weeks ago.

As I write my diary now, all over the world

The number of infected people increases every 100,000 people every day,

Every day, a few percent die

Triage (abandoning patients with low chance of survival) has begun in the field

A situation like "I have a nightmare" is developing in real time all over the world.

-----

Two weeks ago, who envisioned this "nightmare"? ―― To be clear, I can assert that "nobody was there"

Of course, me too.

Two weeks ago, everyone would have thought "in April."

You would normally expect to have an entrance ceremony, an entrance ceremony, a transfer, a meeting, and a busy daily life.

However, we are now stunned by the worst April in human history.

And at the moment, there is no future on the convergence of this disaster.

-----

In fact, I myself wrote a diary of a packed ski resort on the middle of March (March 21).

And no one has blamed my solo ski diary for "the day I published that diary".

Of course, I thought that if I was a solo skier, I wouldn't have any of the three conditions (*), but the fact is trun that I went out with a loose feeling.

(*) A generic term for the three elements of "closed", "dense" and "close"

Of course, some people may come to blame me "now," however in "now," it does not help anything.

-----

At the beginning of March, it was not clear whether or not the "avoidance of three conditions", which is now common sense, would be effective.

Even in mid-March, I think the image was about the effort target.

So, I am going to ask you,

"If anyone could logically criticize my trip to solo ski on March 21, I would like you to argue with me."

I would like you to provide a logical explanation of what was wrong with my actions based on the facts as of March 21.

Of course, I will try my best to refute based on the facts of the March 21 stage.

What is important here is that "criticism from the future beyond March 21", that is, "criticism citing the current situation will not be accepted."

-----

Conversely,

At the present, it makes clear that we can't control the number of infected people, and we know that people who have high fever of 38 degrees or more for almost two weeks, and people wandering about life and death in hell-like pain that cannot breathe on his own,

Nevertheless,

College students hugging at the station platform and talking loudly,

Adults at a pub, face-to-face, drunk, spitting, and swearing by her boss

"You can beat them down"

I think that.

Currently, people are asked for refraining from going out and contacting other people all over Japan.

I'm basically closed at home, the other day, an “emergency urgent business” occurred, and I took the train after a long time.

-----

On the way home, at the ticket gate of the station, I was not a little shocked that I found a group of youth who were playing with friends while shouting out

To be honest, I wanted to beat them.

In foreign countries, there have been cases where residents killed a group of young people who were making noise in front of their homes with guns.

In Japan, something similar has already happened, and I think it will be news.

-----

However, I think that what we are careful, is

"Even if these people have low "infection literacy", our efforts are not spoiled immediately"

This is clear from the results of this simple simulation.

https://tech.kobore.net/covid-19-spread-simulator-master/src/index.html

(Note: it doesn't appear in IE browser).

The result is clear if you check "Stay at Home" with or without.

Even if "Stay at Home" is checked, a certain number of people do not comply with "Stay at Home", however, the simulator indicates that the infection has been controlled.

In other words, if the number of people with low "infection literacy" can be reduced, the infection can be controlled.

From these results, you can see that the policy of the government and local governments, "Reduce the number of people contacting by 80%", makes sense.

-----

Regarding "the youth who are playing with 5 friends", we seem to think that they are usually playing with 25 friends (that is, 80% reduction), and we don't think

"They are criminally incompetent"

This is not for them, but for our mental health.

In my last column, I wrote about "New Corona Countermeasures Using Placebo".

Later, my junior called and talked a bit about this.

Ebata: "I wrote this story in the context of a" breathtaking" after "severe stories".

Junior: "Mr. Ebata, what are you talking about? That's a serious and essential story about this measure."

Ebata: "Well? Seriously?"

Junior: "If you thought it was a joke, you wouldn't understand my story at all."

-----

Today, I was searching for a patent all day at work, I happened to find a great patent application.

"Devices, systems, and methods for promoting behavioral change based on mindfulness techniques"

The applicant seems to be a US venture company.

I was astonished that the invention of "placebo mindfulness technique" was described as a way to encourage patients to change their daily behavior.

So, I checked what uses placebo as technology. In fact, one of the cognitive-behavioral therapies was a technique called "placebo administration".

In clinical trials of antidepressants for depression, it has also been confirmed that symptoms are improved to some extent even in the placebo group (containing no active ingredient) (*).

(*)Marchesi C, De Panfilis C, Tonna M, Ossola P (2013). "Is placebo useful in the treatment of major depression in clinical practice?" Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat 9: 915-20. doi:10.2147/NDT.S44519. PMC: 3699255. PMID 23836976.

-----

I think that there was a reason why he protested too much, indeed.

In accordance with the home waiting instruction accompanying the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's declaration of an emergency, I stayed at my home, spending work time and private time.

I'm usually good at "being alone".

If I follow the instruction of "80% reduction in contact", the number will be below the decimal point, and if I round to the first decimal place, the number will be 0.

Although the possibility of being a victim of infection is unknown, I am proud that I am one of the safest in the world as a perpetrator of infection.

-----

The problem is managing my health, especially my weight.

Recently, I am walking around my home without people for about an hour while reading a book.

It is the revival of "Walking reader".

After all, "Walking reading" is good for me.

So far, I have been able to read two books about quantum computers three times, and I think "I can grab it".

To be exact,

I could make "I don't understand the behavior of quantum" a "explainable state"

From this month, I am going to open , this "I don't know".

Humans are strange. People can know the age of younger than them, however cannot know the age of olde than them.

To exaggerate, My daughters seem to think of me as

a "witness of history witnessing the B29 fighter bomber"

Not even my daughters, some people are likely to think that

"Ebata stood in the Yasuda Auditorium of the University of Tokyo in the 70-year security struggle, and fought the battle."

-----

It's a misunderstanding.

Unfortunately, I haven't been in B29 for 40 years, Yasuda Auditorium for 20 years.

The only thing in time is the "Aum Shinrikyo Subway Sarin Incident".

-----

Well, I think it's my responsibility to make such misunderstandings.

I'm interested in modern history (WWI to WWII and postwar) and I know quite a lot about the 60 and 70 year security struggles.

If such behaviors appear on a daily basis, it is unavoidable to be misunderstood.

By the way, in my home, the words "unusual", "completion", and "summary" are used more often than in ordinary households, I think.

-----

And, I want to go to the movie

"Yukio Mishima vs The 50th Year of Truth in the University of Tokyo Collaborative Fight"

however, currently, all movie theaters in the Tokyo metropolitan area are in the state of being canceled.

I was wondering if I go to see a movie theater in a rural area, but I understand that "Tokyo residents" are "uninvited guests" in Japan at the moment (*).

(*)At the moment, Tokyo has the highest number of new corona cases.

That's natural, and I think I should respond accordingly.

-----

So, this weekend, I'm going to play with Amazon PRIME by watching "Actual Record: The Road to the Red Army Asama Sanso".

Up to now, I have always been in the position that "PC literacy education" for elementary and junior high school students is "essential" and "bringing a smartphone to school" is "obvious".

Unfortunately, this controversy can be said to have been settled while the curfew was issued in the declaration of emergency.

Needless to say, smartphones are now exerting a great deal of power in mental measures for children who cannot go out.

From now on, "children who cannot take online classes" will become a social problem.

-----

It's too late to learn the literacy of smartphones and PCs when taking online classes.

When the interface and operation methods are part of the body, online lessons become "useful".

The senior citizens of the neighborhood association prove it, who shouts out loud "I can't use email".

(Here you can see in the data how they are disturbing local activities)

-----

Children are more likely to learn naturally if they are given a smartphone or PC. even if not, it can be expected that the investment in education will be small (the basis data is the daughters of the Ebata family).

The problem is "teachers".

We don't need a teacher, who cannot create teaching materials for online classes, or cannot broadcast online from my teacher's home.

The time is coming soon.

I think that lazy teachers who do not desperately study literacy as an Internet service provider(×user), should think positively about changing jobs.

-----

I don't think this new coronavirus erosion will end this time alone.

Untreated killer viruses are always ready to be activated.

In the first place, even without this catastrophe, class closures due to the flu occurred every year.

Especially in Japan, typhoon disasters occur every year. And the future of a major earthquake that kills tens of thousands of people is definite.

Meanwhile, educational infrastructure (schools, etc.) can always be said to be precarious.

There is an urgent need to establish an educational system that does not assume "containers (school building)".

Then, children should come together only for "the teacher's online lesson, which is easy to understand".

If this happens, the child will become aware of the reality of "class skipping = suicide", in the the "classes where unlimited skipping is permitted" --Although it may take time.

-----

I asked my daughters, that many teachers still lack literacy as Internet education service providers. Furthermore, it seems that some teachers are not willing to acquire that IT literacy as Internet education service provider.

This is "Being thoroughly disgusted".

"A person who teaches others, does not study about area of weaknesses" --- Except for people of other occupations, only "teachers" can never afford this excuse.

Of course, teachers are human too. so first they also have to beg for the teaching.

Teachers also have to pay a fair price for education or politely ask young people to teach.

Not as "acceptance" but as "obvious".

A movie that I've always been interested in, since the theater company Caramel Box was performing, whose title is

"Key thief's method"

I watched the movie by Amazon PRIME.

-----

The Ebata family has established a culture where individuals enjoy TV, PCs, and smartphones in pieces.

Therefore, it is normal for us to hear the sound of two smartphones and one PC at the same time in the living room.

Of course, there are audio problems, however, in addition to adjusting the volume, various measures have been taken, such as using the FM transmitter to send the TV sound to the radio (I set it up, of course).

When I told my wife "It's very interesting!" While watching an Amazon PRIME movie on my room PC, my wife starts watching the movie from the beginning on a PC connected to the living room TV

Amazon PRIME's "Time difference simultaneous screening"

We are trying the method.

-----

"Key Thief's Method" is a very fun movie that I can recommend to everyone.

While thinking that this might be more interesting if it is a play script, I noticed that "I see, the caramel box has performed twice"

I burst into tears in the movie's last 1-second scene. It's been a long time since I've done this.

I am studying the fundamentals of quantum mechanics when studying quantum computers.

As a result,

"Compared to the fear of quantum behavior, neither "UFOs", "ghosts", or "the world" are in the number of scary things."

I feel that.

I have heard from various people and books about "phenomenon beyond the common sense of quantum", I feel the fear by doing my own research.

Our world is not fully understood, while realizing that, I continue to investigate.

As a target for new coronavirus infection, I try not to go out.

Even so, the word "self-restraint request" used by top people in the media and government is being abused.

"Self-restraint request" is not much different from the slogan "improvement of quality" of the poster, put on the production line of the factory.

In other words, we can't expect an effect.

-----

No. in fact, I know that well.

I read all the articles of the law concerning the declaration of emergency before,

"This law does not prohibit the movement of people or economic activities (*)"

(*)However, this is not the case when it is certified as a legally infectious disease, after a certain procedure.

I know that.

Of course, because there is no law, there are no criminal penalties(There are many laws without penalties).

Therefore, the limit of the message that can be spoken becomes "request self-restraint".

-----

Since I can't come to work at the moment, I am walking around the town alone to loose lack of exercise. but I look at some interesting things.

"Butchers and greengrocers that are normally open without closing stores except Saturdays and Sundays"

Well, even if it's normal,

Izakaya bar just changed business hours from "until 24:00" to "until 22:00"

The most hit restaurant I've seen is

The ramen shop usually opened at 11:30 am is used to open 9:00 am and starts "morning ramen"(The closing time was advanced by 2 hours)

These self-restraints are "self-restraint for self-restraint", and the purpose of "virus infection prevention" cannot be seen.

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

In China, there is a famous phrase "There are policies on the top and strategies on the bottom".

The original meaning is that "if the country makes a policy, the people have a way to respond to that policy."

However, it is generally used to mean that "regardless of what the government decides, the common people will always come up with a way out."

In system engineering, there are the ideas of "local optimization" and "global optimization".

"Global optimization" means that the individual can accept the disadvantages and the group can obtain the maximum benefit.

Infectious disease control is a typical "global optimization" strategy.

But for most people, everything in a 10 meter radius is everything.

We cannot see "profit" in units such as municipalities or administrative districts or nations. We have only "private interests (local optimization)".

-----

If the nation can make stronger laws that can restrict the rights of individuals, it may be possible to effectively prevent infection.

However, it is also true that our country once made such a law, and as a result, all the people were in "terrible eyes."

Therefore, I have the same feeling that I want to do something just by "requesting self-restraint".

-----

This is just an unjust suspicion.

Governments may expect us to execute voluntary, non-law enforcement sentences, called "lynch"

It is such an insidious "private punishment" that exposes the above-mentioned izakaya bar and ramen shops on SNS and YouTube.

Recently, I've been depressed at work, and I'm having an impact outside of work.

Specifically, the update of the diary is delayed.

I don't feel like writing anymore,

"This article won't fall out of the rankings for nearly a month."

Today I would like to report the above.

Ebata

It's a stupid thing to notice at this age,

"I talk too much"

I come to think that again.

-----

Saying that "I can do it" about what I might be able to do it

If I did what I can do it,

Another thing will come by the result.

I've been repeating that.

Repeating that, I finally made my body that I couldn't drink.

There were days when I had a drip, a nutritional supplement, a stabilizer, and a sleeping pill.

This is strange.

There are a lot of people around me who live without breaking my body and holding stabilizers and sleeping pills.

-----

I will say "I cannot do it" about what I might be able to do it

I will not say "I can do it" from myself, even if it is not.

I think from now on, keeping strictly the above rules, I have to live my life.

So even if I meet unfortunate things,

It's better than dying.

I need to review my previous work. When you start the work, the fear at that time is reproduced, my heart beats, and breathing becomes difficult.

I know that "initial response" is important, whenever I have such symptoms. Because I wrote about it in my columns.

Immediately, I tried to make a telephone reservation to several clinics of Department of Psychiatry and Internal Medicine, however at all the clinics I was told that my first visit was after June.

This may also be part of the chain of medical collapse.

Rather, I am thinking that,

The national level "disintegration of mental health" has begun

Q. Looking back on the infection status of COVID-19 on April 10, was there a problem that (Ebata) enjoyed his (solo) ski trip on March 21?

In response, I received an email from Dr. Shibata, so I will open it with the permission.

====== Reply from Dr. Shibata ("Shibata of the overrun"), from here ======

A. I think that Mr. Ebata's ski trip had no problem at all.

Historically, or rather, human societies are so loose that they indirectly harm the lives of others on a daily basis.

"Tobacco ⇒ Cancer death"

"Harassment and economic disparity that are not recognized as crime ⇒ suicide"

Automobile ⇒ accidental death, sequelae"

"Fast or salty food ⇒ hypertension ⇒ lethal vascular lesions"

"Nuclear power plant on volcanic and earthquake islands"

There are many examples and reality that human life is lighter than greed and inertia.

Well, there is a used expression that "Integration of multiplication of difference in life expectancy between developing and developed countries and number of births". It is said that this is the same of "the amount of life that person who haves cut off persons who have-nots".

So, I think that according to the act before the harmful act is widely known as a threat at the level of social common sense, nobody should take responsibility.

Also, the Japanese government weighs the economy and the complete end of COVID-19, and at the moment, we are giving up the end of COVID-19 and aiming for equilibrium.

The complete closure of the economy will hunt down a lot of people, create a lot of misfortune, and generate a considerable number of suicides.

So I agree with this direction.

The government's aim is to minimize the misfortunes of the world = spend money while keeping the number of COVID-19 patients to a number that does not cause medical collapse.

Corona is dead but society is dead ... This doesn't make us laugh.

When thinking that way, I think that Mr. Ebata, who spent money on leisure when there were only a few infected people, contributes much more to society than the young people who wander around without spending money in Shibuya.

-----

However, if I would like to add only one point, Mr. Ebata. you could not anticipate this "nightmare", but you could expect the number itself, Could you?

(To be continued)

Today, new my column is released, so I take a day off.

Dancing Buzzword-Behind the Buzzword (1) Quantum Computer (1)

You don't have to understand the ghost story, "quantum computer" anymore

-----

This is a new series.

Publicly, I think this column will be "a description of the technology that has become a buzzword."

However, unlike the previous "artificial intelligence", this "quantum computer" is honestly quite a burden for me.

In the "Artificial Intelligence" series, I coded all the AI technology algorithms in the series and tried the functions, even if it is poor.

So, even if my column was criticized, I could immediately publish the code, intercept it, and counterattack it.

(What am I fighting for)

However, at the moment, the "quantum computer" is not installed in my room at home.

I have to wait until the "raspey size" quantum computer at the "raspey price" is sold. However, it's a subtlety that I could watch it during my life.

Anyway, there is always anxiety about the explanation of things that I can not try with tangible things.

-----

So, I'm looking for someone who can supervise the contents of my "Quantum Computer" column.

It's hard to spell out what I want, but I will welcome anyone like

"Dr.Shibata of the over run", who has given me vast and useful advice and contents from the medical technology field.

"Rude junior" who is in charge of all criticisms of Ebata column, including literary perspective

who can accept Ebata's contents well, cannot ignore the details, and can give advice with "specific example".

Not to mention the theoretical aspects of quantum computers, it would be greatly appreciated if students and teachers who make and touch actual hardware (tangible objects) such as quantum circuits.

We would appreciate it if you could contact me.

(Continuation from yesterday)

A considerable number of people above high school who have science thought, noticed "Oh, it's an exponential function." or "It's a disease that easily spreads to 10 to 20% of the population." with looking at the situation in China in February and the spread of infected people to Diamond Princess in 20% of passengers,

If you couldn't imagine the reason for the convergence at that stage, you should be worried about something in your heart.

And, while making predictions, I think the truth is that most people did not believe in their predictions based on normalization bias.

There must have been an enormous number of people who were even a little worried about the possibility that the coronavirus could spread while riding an exponential function, at the same rate as those who said, "I didn't think I would really lose in World War II (I knew I couldn't really win),"

Even Some people who thought a little calmly, "There can be no exponential function in reality, in the end it is a logistic curve", come to think that "the number of patients who reach the end of the logistic curve" is "the number of patients who achieve collective immunity."

So they might have felt anxious that the rate of increase could almost ride on the exponential function for a while ...I'm sure there was a reasonable number of people.

I think it was either "what kind of mathematics can predict the future of humankind" or If it becomes a reality it is too dangerous ..." instinctively.

Now, Mr. Ebata. how did you take the worst number in his mind before March 21st?

====== the end of Reply from Dr. Shibata ("Shibata of the overrun") ======

(Supplement by Ebata)

The "logistic function" here simply means that, assuming a country with only 100 people, the closer the number of infected people is to 100, the more the number of infected people decreases. Or, taking infinite time, everyone will be infected.

The "exponential function" here is the situation where the number of infected people increases at a doubling pace every day. So-called "infection explosion".

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

====== Ebata's answer From here ======

In conclusion, everything is "Dr.Shibata's point is correct".

In fact, I think I didn't really understand the realities of outbreaks.

Infections that I have been aware of around me, are influenza, colds, dysentery, cholera, and tuberculosis.

Influenza basically converges when the season changes, and containment of other infections has succeeded due to the efforts of many people.

-----

By the way, as a calculator, I do not have an "infection explosion" , but a "calculation explosion on a daily basis."

Computer often causes the phenomenon of overflow.

This means that I can accidentally set your computer's calculation parameters to generate exponential numbers, which can make my computer shut down.

It is, so to speak, an "overshoot" of computer resources.

The "overshoot" of the computer occurs instantly immediately after the calculation is started (the moment the return key is pressed).

So,

If the "overshoot" really occurs in the real world, major cities in Japan will be paralyzed in one month, and corpses will be left on the street within two months.

This was, in my mind, a matter of expectation.

However I downgraded "it is just a story of the virtual world inside the computer"

"Does overflow (overshoot) really appear in the real world?"

with no basis.

-----

So now I'm stunned.

I have never seen a case in which the phenomenon of the virtual world in a computer appeared so perfectly in the real world.

Needless to say, COVID-19, which has neither an effective vaccine nor a means for curative cure, is horribly "compatible" with computer calculations (simulations).

There is no doubt that the current government COVID-19 countermeasure team and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare use computer simulations every day.

(It depends on the model, but if the population is around 10 million people, I think that it can be calculated even with a personal computer).

Therefore, if we do not follow the current COVID-19 infection control measures indicated by the national and local governments,

"25 million infections, 640,000 deaths" (Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare 2007 (13 years ago))

I also know that the above can easily become a reality.

(The reason why the number of people of "25 million" is the upper limit, is that the number of people who have acquired immunity to infect will decrease the infection rate (R0 < 1).

Anyway, I think that the government policy of current "80% reduction in contact" is trusted based on scientific and mathematical grounds.

(Maybe I guess the threshold that leads to "R0 <1.0" is between 70% and 80%)

-----

Anyway, Dr Shibata's comment

However, if I would like to add only one point, Mr. Ebata. you could not anticipate this "nightmare", but you could expect the number itself, Could you?

I have to admit that it is ture.

====== Ebata's answer To here ======

Today, I will open my email I sent to my sister.

====== The 1st letter from here =====

Due to the current coronal damage, I have been working from home for a long time in April.

In principle, my family has not gone out.

I wanted to return home to GW, but the Tokyo Metropolitan Government request us to refrain from returning country home, and the company also seems to manage the position of employees.

In addition, according to wife, at a remote girls' association on a smartphone the other day, I know that she heard that people currently living in Tokyo are being treated as "COVID-19 infected people."

(A student enrolled in Tokyo was asked by his/her parents, "Don't go home.")

Well, I think this is unavoidable, and in fact, I myself think that the possibility of being an unknowingly infected person is not zero.

For that reason, I think that I have to stay home all GW days.

However, I am worry about the maintenance of the parents' house, and above all, I have been concerned about my mother's gastrostomy device replacement.

On the other hand, I think that I can do something to consider various conditions (e.g. day trip homecoming (?)) and so on.

If you have any urgent requirements, please let me know soon.

====== The 1st letter to here =====

====== The 2nd letter from here =====

Thank you for your reply.

To be honest, I'm surprised to hear about the infection control at your workplace.

This is also case by case.

In particular, "corona literacy" against viruses is individualized.

However, there is a risk that if an employee has a sick person, the business will be immediately suspended. That's a big problem, isn't it?

Only this time, the administration's "prohibition of three types of close contact" and "80% reduction in contact" are scientifically grounded instructions.

I would like the concept of "contact period" to be included here.

Although there are individual differences, if the amount of virus intake (so-called exposure dose) exceeds a certain value, infection will lead to illness (external excretion of virus).

In that sense, window work is the first line of danger, regardless of the presence or absence of a mask (It is true).

I hope that you will be able to protect yourself by having a "hand wash" that is overwhelmingly more effective than a mask (at least once an hour).

I am currently writing the second column on coronavirus.

The title will be

"Invitation to the New Corona Uisuru Ruin Battle for IT engineers who are angry with Corona"

-----

>Certainly, with this sense, I am afraid that you will be avoided if you say "I am from Tokyo".

I agree. I also think that if someone says "come from New York," I will avoid them.

As I talked with a doctor, it seems that 100 to 1,000 times as many people as official COVID-19 positive responders are estimated to be infected people in Japan including unconscious people.

In particular, we believe that the Ebata family (Machida), who has one teenager and one around Twenty one, may be a potentially infected colony.

Let's take a look at my mother a little more. When it comes time, I will do.

Thank you very much. If I kill my mother, it's really kidding.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can do anything remotely.

Thank you for your cooperation.

Tomoichi

For a long time, I have been a supporter of September admission.

The reason is the time of the entrance examination, moreover I think it is also good from the perspective of internationalization of education.

Well, unless we use this "new coronavirus disaster", we will never see this chance again.

-----

Looking at the countries around the world, it seems that the beginning of September is overwhelmingly large, but that is not all.

For example, January (Singapore), February (Australia, New Zealand), March (Korea), June (Philippines), etc.

On the other hand, according to fiscal year, they was scattered in each country.

As you know, it is April to March in Japan.

However, even in G-7 member countries, the United States (October to September), United Kingdom (April to March), Germany (January to December), France (January to December), Italy (January) From December) to Canada (April to March).

Furthermore, although the United States is from October to September as a federation, the state unit has its own fiscal year.

"it will be manageable as an international cash flow"

I'm a little impressed.

Conversely speaking, the financial crisis could be avoided by such fiscal year shifts.

Each country's unique currency system has its good and bad sides.

In particular, the ability of the country to print its own money is an overwhelming advantage in an unprecedented economic crisis like this (although it would be dangerous if it was not brought into a short-term war).

By the way, recently, Euro and Greece have shown that the single currency system is quite dangerous.

-----

Fiscal years may not need to be uniform across countries, however, how about the "educational year"?

I think September is good from the perspective of international cooperation. I think September is good from the perspective of international cooperation. Personally, if entrance examinations are not disturbed by "snow damage", "flu", "typhoon", and "hot weather", I don't care it at all.

If anyone can logically claim that the current unique education year in Japan (April to March) is “effective as an education system,” I am going to hear them.

If there is a numerical simulation (even if it is a desktop simulation), I'd be happy to come.

We received the following request from Dr. Shibata.

====== Request from Dr. Shibata from here =====

Currently, my junior high school children are lazy at home.

I made them read the article saying "Programming is essential in the future" that appeared in today's morning newspaper article, and they said, "somehow interesting?"

By the way, they are not able to explain the meaning of the words "programming language" "OS" "editor" "file" "folder". (I will give the outlines to them in the future.)

My skill is about to copy and paste a Excel macro from the web and execute it.

For exampe, I think that I am "a rolling villager who don't know where the evtrace of a pyramid before excavation"

Therefore, "I would like you to write Mr. Ebata's memorandum with the title (contents) of "A book that a IT engineer introductory to junior high school students and high school students( or startup method) .

====== Request from Dr. Shibata to here =====

I'm one of the people who feels a tremendous sense of crisis in the "programming education" of teenagers.

For more details, please read the following.

It means, human beings are not compatible with mathematics perhaps.

"I will never do programming for my life"

I can already see the "big failure" of programming education in the compulsory education process at this stage, even if not seen by others.

In the first place, I think that "fun programming" is contradictory as "white gray".

For both human beings and computers, "programming languages" are only tools to mutually understand at the last minute

"Why does Ebata try to make a program that nobody will use whenever he release a new column?"

So, why do not we focus on "spreadsheet education"?

First of all, they should not come up with the power to "go to the PC."

If they can make full use of "Excel", I believe that we make no never mind of programming.

"getting over their dislike of numbers (not math)"

(5) We strongly encourage employment of Tomoichi Ebata as a teacher at the site of formulation, planning, and programming education of (1) to (4) above.

-----

I think it is impossible for a teenager to create a programming environment as much as "absolutely absolute power".

If I teach a program that compiles and only displays "Hello World" to them, I am afraid that "the child's future as a programmer is over".

I don't think there are any children who can endure that "desperate boringness".

So my claim is

"If you want to teach teenagers programming, don't let them program"

is the word for it.

(Continuation from yesterday)

(Continuation from yesterday)

If they realize the power of a computer and want to calculate on a larger scale and at higher speed, they will have to use a programming language.

Or maybe that kind of opportunity never happens in their life, however I think that's fine.

So, I think "program education without programming" means "using Excel (spreadsheet)".

Furthermore, the words "OS", "file" and "folder" are not necessary. Even if they don't know that, Excel will work (they just have to remember "save" and "open").

However, when I review it this time, I think that "I have not written anything concrete."

Since I'm talking so loud, I should mention a sample.

-----

(1) Book as thin as possible -- must be completed in 1 day

(2) Only the uppermost functions are described as much as possible --- 20% of all functions account for 80% used (Pareto's law)

(3) Various graph displays --- "Visualization" is important

(4) It is desirable for the children to be able to "abuse" in completing their homework ---- that is, "useful" for children.

I thought that the above 4 conditions are essential.

-----

I have spent quite a long time searching for a book that meets the above four conditions, but I could not find.

Or rather, there is no textbook that throws numbers into cells from the first page.

It's good "Shut up and type this way!"

The reasons will follow (maybe).

- I don't need VBA,

- Children need accounting reports?

- The graph is not fun,

- There are no subjects that children are interested in

- there is no book with only four arithmetic operations and @sum and @average

-----

Although it is not far from the above 5 conditions, I found a site that is likely to satisfy only the above (1).

https://www.officepro.jp/

It is recommended to operate cells in order from "EXECL" here.

First, work for one day,

and just copy the exact details on the site here.

"How to use Excel" may be skipped.

I think it's enough to use "How to use Excel graph" and "Getting started with Excel functions".

Also, skipping "Excel Macro Introduction", "Excel VBA Introduction", and "Excel Form". there is no need.

-----

I come to think that "I (Ebata) have no choice but to write an EXECL book for teenages.

The content has not been decided, but the title has been decided.

"Introduction to EXCEL to quickly deal with troublesome school homework"

"Introduction to EXCEL to create such a free research report in the last three days of summer vacation"