Yesterday, I told you about "Bayes estimator". Today my company library sent me a good book whose title is "Basic of Bayes statics with Excel".

"Bayes statics" provides us with the method how to calculate "the probability of cooper's profit when wind blows" under the condition of "wind blows, cooper is profitable".

You don't care? Yes it's O.K.

I think the question changes if we use the method for the wedding problem, for example, "what is the probability of marriage when a person meets mixers more than one time every month".

In other words, I think you are interested in the following, "what is the different probability of marriage between one time and two times mixers in a month?

Don't you mind?

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The previous day, I tried to calculate "happiness of marriage" with using numeric only.

In conclusion, I output the calculation results that "Marriage is gamble, but it is valuable for you to bet".

That could not interest the readers.

But I think "leave it to fate" is inferior to "leave it to numeric".

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There were some success cases.

Please watch the super presentation "How I hacked online dating" by Ms.Amy Webb.

After a long interval, I busted into laughing, when seeing a presentation.

Now we, the Ebatas, are talking about "Otori-Monogatari" written by Nishio-Ishin sensei, frequently.

I give the topic to them, and both the second and first daughter try to join the debate, and exchange their opinions soundly.

Though I claims "Sengoku-Nadeko is not guilty", they insist on claiming "Sengoku-Nadeko is guilty".

(Of course, this topic is not about legal action, but moral issue.)

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Ebata:"Doesn't she have a responsibility for her birth with "pretty" as one attribute of her ? Any appearance should not be blamed by anyone. Because nobody can control its appearance.

The 2nd Daughter: "Sengoku-Nadeko is wiliness. She can get a lot of merits by not her efforts but her appearance. Any girls cannot tolerate her."

Ebata:"Wait a minutes. It doesn't matter how Sengoku-Nadeko should be valued at this time. The problem is whether Sengoku-Nadeko should be blamed by her "pretty" appearance."

2nd:"Sengoku Nadeko, who is "pretty", is going to have Araragi's heart without any efforts. We can say that she is guilty."

Ebata:"O.K. I am going to show you a counter example. There are some persons who can use English well without especial efforts. They study English less than 1/100 of me. and they can speak English fluently and are given a promotion, earn a lot of money and can get hard-to-find enjoyable and creative works. I envy them and feel jealous."

2nd:"..."

Ebata: It's not that they are guilty because they are loved by English by their potential.

(To be continued)

As a weekend engineer, I am trying an experiment with several Raspberry PIs.

For the experiment, I need more than two Raspberry PIs. So I asked persons who are close relationship to borrow them, and some persons accepted my offer.

In this time, I would like to express appreciation for your kindness again.

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Well, I have welcomed to borrow Raspberry PI sufficiently, so it is hard to me to say "if you also have a power adapter and a MicroSD card.....".

So, I went to a "100-Yen discount shop", and bought both a USB battery charger and microUSB cable.

I felt anxiety for the power capacity, however, at least the Raspverry PI2(max Amp 900mA) seems to be working now.

As talked earlier, "The Ebata's home security server" is working by less than the power of LED bulb.

Once, I discussed this issue(low power consumption) with an engineer. He said "That is smart-phones".

Any smart-phone should work without outlet anywhere.

Therefor, the CPU or device developments has progressed to realize power saving, as a result, the merit has spread out other fields.

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When I heard the story, I could thank smart-phone, for the first time.

Now, I was annoyed at using IME of smart-phone, and I become an stressed-out commuter.

The speed of making document is more than one hundred times slower than a PC.

Now I am making a mail server for the Internet at home.

You might think why Ebata is doing it nowadays.

First of all, "making a server at home" is equal to "the Ebata's home network comes to a target of cyber attack".

The best thing to do is "do-nothing", however, I have an inevitable private reason.

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When I was young, I tried to make a mail server. However I gave it up because of the pain,

Mail server is not like a Web server or FTP server, just launch it.

The mail server differs from other servers in that "mail conversation" must be done between mail servers.

And it is premise that mail server should "believes" another mail server, and should be "believed" by another mail server.

If my mail server connects with a mail server which do cyber attacks, serious situation will appear.

In fact, in the past, there was a case that Internet servers all over the world became malfunctioning due to the attack using a mail server (Although most people all over the world did not know the word "Internet").

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

Of course, it is necessary to carefully judge whether or not public services are possible in the state of suffering from dementia, and I also understand that it is a major project related to national interests as well.

However, as mentioned here, dementia is a 100% inevitable disease.

Therefore, we must create a society that coexists with dementia.

Now, should we throw out people with dementia without question, or incorporate into society under certain rules?

"The world is watching over Japan, which has many advanced problems (low birthrate, non-maritalization, aging)."

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However, I think that expanding the story of such assumptions under the unclear circumstances whether the former minister has dementia.

However, I would like to allow him to use this case as a use case for raising questions based on one assumption.

Because, if the head of government shows the attitude to tackle this problem, it will be a great appeal not only to Japan but also to the world.

I am convinced that it will be a big "hope" for not only Japan but the whole world, even if there are enormous misstep of him.

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I know that dementia is "a disease that will give huge burdens around the patient", however, I do not think that "it is a shameful disease."

Again, as long as we live, we can not escape from dementia.

Coexistence with dementia is a difficult social issue.

However, at least, there is no reason that dementia is "shameful" and there should be no such bias.

Humans are strange. People can know the age of younger than them, however cannot know the age of olde than them.

To exaggerate, My daughters seem to think of me as

a "witness of history witnessing the B29 fighter bomber"

Not even my daughters, some people are likely to think that

"Ebata stood in the Yasuda Auditorium of the University of Tokyo in the 70-year security struggle, and fought the battle."

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It's a misunderstanding.

Unfortunately, I haven't been in B29 for 40 years, Yasuda Auditorium for 20 years.

The only thing in time is the "Aum Shinrikyo Subway Sarin Incident".

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Well, I think it's my responsibility to make such misunderstandings.

I'm interested in modern history (WWI to WWII and postwar) and I know quite a lot about the 60 and 70 year security struggles.

If such behaviors appear on a daily basis, it is unavoidable to be misunderstood.

By the way, in my home, the words "unusual", "completion", and "summary" are used more often than in ordinary households, I think.

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And, I want to go to the movie

"Yukio Mishima vs The 50th Year of Truth in the University of Tokyo Collaborative Fight"

however, currently, all movie theaters in the Tokyo metropolitan area are in the state of being canceled.

I was wondering if I go to see a movie theater in a rural area, but I understand that "Tokyo residents" are "uninvited guests" in Japan at the moment (*).

(*)At the moment, Tokyo has the highest number of new corona cases.

That's natural, and I think I should respond accordingly.

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So, this weekend, I'm going to play with Amazon PRIME by watching "Actual Record: The Road to the Red Army Asama Sanso".

(Continuation from yesterday)

This is a reprint of a diary entry I made in the past.

===== from here ======

It is believed that the Fukushima nuclear accident was caused by an unexpected tsunami.

But I'd like to give it some thought.

Even if that "unexpected" is true, the tsunami did not directly damage the reactors.

The tsunami only incapacitated the backup diesel generator and its peripheral equipment.

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So what if I recruited about 10 terrorists, trained them for about three years in sabotage, and then broke into the Fukushima nuclear power plant?

What if we used dynamite to bring down all the transmission towers, destroy the diesel generators, and then overpower the power plant with weapons and holed up all the people in the building as hostages?

Instead of waiting for the fuel rods to dissolve, why don't you threaten the staff with a gun and make them pull the fuel rods out of the central control room and leave them there?

Why don't I just kill a few hostages at a time, just enough for the police to see, and make sure no one gets into the nuclear power plant?

Of course, as terrorists, my fellow terrorists and I have no desire to save our own lives from the start.

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Will the special forces be able to properly kill all of us terrorists, assuming civilian casualties, before the radioactive nuclear fuel gets out of hand?

It seems to me that "creating" another Fukushima nuclear accident is not that difficult.

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Unfortunately, this idea is not my original, but I stole it from the last scene of "God's Fire" (written by Kaoru Takamura).

In this book, the protagonist and his friend, just two people, successfully attack a nuclear power plant on a winter night and open the lid of the reactor containment vessel.

Moreover, the meticulous planning was not at all unreasonable, even for the reader, and seemed feasible enough.

It seems to me that to prevent such a terrorist attack, a squad of armed men would have to be placed at every operating nuclear power plant in Japan.

===== to here ======

And another thing.

===== from here ======

Let's try to make the story simpler, shall I?

What would happen if a neighboring country, which is not on good terms with our country, overstepped the bounds of "brinkmanship diplomacy" and launched a missile attack or air strike on all of Japan's nuclear reactors?

In a matter of seconds, the land and water will be contaminated with radiation, and the majority of the people will be exposed to radiation at the cost of their lives.

Many people may not know this, but in 1981, Israel actually bombed a nuclear power plant in Iraq (Operation Babylon).

When it comes to war, anything is possible.

===== to here ======

Wife: "What happened at this 'Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power plant?"

Ebata: "If I had to put it in one sentence, it would be, 'The sensors leading to the central control room of the nuclear power plant were broken, the door was unlocked, and we were in a state of "welcome, terrorists.

Wife: "...lie"

Ebata: "If I had been able to break into the central control room by myself -- 'trespassing,' of course -- I would have been a hero in a different way, I think.

I am shocked that so few people are shocked or outraged by this news.

"I thought that anyone who had seen Fukushima 50 would be able to figure out that they could have created exactly the same situation (up to and including the reactor containment explosion) by simply dynamiting the power plant by hand, without submerging it in the tsunami.

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By the way, if a country to the north of the Korean peninsula decides to attack our country, they don't need a continental ballistic missile equipped with nuclear weapons.

A single launch of a semi-medium-range ballistic missile, capable of flying 1,200 kilometers, into any one of Japan's 54 operating nuclear reactors (nine of them) would be "game over.

At the Ebata household, dinner is timed to coincide with the 7 p.m. NHK news.

And recently, I have been 'losing my appetite'.

----

The Russian invasion of Ukraine teaches me, that

- The United Nations,

- International treaties,

- the International Court of Justice,

- the principle of sovereign independence

- the concept of justice,

- the hope for peace,

- various faiths,

After all, it became a reminder that 'those things are not useful'.

----

Of course, it may not be 'useless' in all cases, however, according to the matter directly related to private interests,

"in the face of the word 'right to life'"

I now reconfirm that these are almost 100% ignored and ineffective.

If they say, "Survival is justice," or "The sacrifices of people other than myself are nothing compared to that," I can't argue with them (at least I can't).

"He has the power, I don't"

(*) Mainly refers to the military, police, etc., and in a broader sense, all public authorities with coercive power, such as the government and the state.

I (Ebata) am neither "justice" nor "peaceful". I am just "weak".

----

Therefore,

"Expecting 'kindness' and 'compassion' from society is futile"

Maybe it would be kinder to the children if we shifted our education to teach them that way...

Thinking about it makes me lose my appetite.

I once thought sincerely and seriously for about a minute about "the last meal of my life."

To my own surprise, an unexpected meal came to mind.

"Okonomiyaki" at "Okonomiyaki Jumbo" at Kyoto Tojiin Station

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When I was a second-year master's student (the oldest in my lab's seminar), I had taken my bike out to buy okonomiyaki for everyone remaining in the seminar room and had brought back take-out okonomiyaki for about 10 people.

I just searched the route on GoogleMap and it was quite a distance (30 minutes round trip by bike).

I remember that I went there quite often while I was in college.

I can't imagine (even I can't) from the "solitary Ebata" of today -- the okonomiyaki was really delicious with getting together with the seminar students and making a lot of noise.

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Today, I attended a welcome party for newcomers to the seminar at the university I currently belong, and had pizza in the seminar room with them.

About half of the attendees were international students, so I took the opportunity to go around asking them what they wanted to say to Japan/Japanese people -- as well as preparing material for my column.

I would like to talk about this later.

-----

Anyway, I watched the party, hoping that they could remember the taste of pizza as the "last meal", like me.

I am Ebata, the official "violent device" of the Ebata family.

Examples of violent devices include,

(1) I once went to the principal's office of a school to knock him down, or rather, to discuss the matter with him.

(2) Once, at a pension center, I disputed the responsibility of the government office for an incomplete document and had the incomplete document accepted.

(3) I have forced a customer to complete the cancellation and contract of a smartphone by setting a time limit for the customer to respond to a dishonest response.

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In each case, the problem was a family member other than myself, but the parties involved were restless, reading their phones or books while I was fighting with them at the counter.

Before I joined the problem,

"If my father comes, he will kill you.

I heard that she said that.

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In my case, the following are not customer harassment.

(1) I list the case process chronologically in the text.

(2) Properly separate the responsibility for the incident (including our side).

(3) Then, both parties confirm the issues in the case.

(4) After including (1) through (3) above, summarize which is unreasonable and disadvantageous in light of the rules, the law, and common sense (social common sense).

Thus, after clarifying the background and issues,

(5) Find a compromise point for both sides, demand the necessary response, and inform the other side of the reaction (x retaliation) measures we are prepared to take.

(6) If the other party does not take action within the specified period, the response (x retaliation) is executed "100%".

I think I have been able to use my studies at the law seminar (which I attended at my own expense) in this approach.

I would not say, 'There is no such thing as useless study in this world,' I think, 'indeed, that would be a lie.

But I feel that 'what I have studied is often helpful.

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Daughter: "You're good at making things impossible, aren't you, Dad?

Ebata: "That is not true. I am only making a statement based on the "law" and "rules. I am not doing anything more or less than that.

I genuinely believe that.

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I know many people may not accept this, but I usually think.

"How to use the law" is like "mathematical proofs" or "program algorithms."