Though I had knew "Monty Hall problem" from "Owari-monogatari(jyou)" by Ishin Nishio san, I have forgotten it.

Recently, the problem appeared again during "Bayes estimator" study, and I tried to understand this problem and answer.

So, I went to hell for the first time in a long time.

"Monty Hall problem" is easy to understand. You can fine it from many web sites.

(1)There are three doors in front of a player, and the new car of the prize is behind the door of one of them. Goats (meaning out) are behind other doors.

(2)The player gets the new car if they hit the door of the new car. Of course, the player doesn’t know which door is bingo.

(3)Monty (quizmaster) knows the door of the new car, and he shows the goat by opening one goat's door after the (2).

(4)Monty tells the players that they can have a change to change the door.

Question: Should the player change the door?

Answer: Absolutely they should change the door. The probability goes up two times.

------

"What on earth?

"Why the probability goes up twice when the door is changed?"

"The bingo door has been decided at the first stage, so it should not change the probability by ex-post action?"

Do you think so?

-----

The woman writer got more than ten thousands letters of protest (including near one thousand doctorate degree holders) nationwide, and it became tremendous fuss.

Well, I think, would be so.

Even me, I think I did same thing.

But the woman was right.

-----

I did not know the reason even after reading the literature various.

So I tried to execute the simulation activation program using the Monte Carlo method.

However I tried many times again, the numeric showed that she is right.

"Heck! What is this?!

Using all of the overtime hours, I had been thinking all the way this problem.

No, no. This is an honest business.

It is necessary for me to understand "Bayesian estimation" correctly.

After all, I could understand the problem using the resolve to use "100 door’s case" deeply.

-----

So I hope that everybody also suffer against this problem.

(Continuation from yesterday)

2nd:"I think that you are on a different level."

Ebata:"You can resolve a very difficult mathematics problem that even I cannot do it. From the viewpoint of a person who eager to become good at math, you arouse a feeling of dreadfully hostility of them. I want to ask you whether you do something bad."

2nd:"..."

Ebata:"I am not loved by English at all though, I think that I am loved by writing. Writing is fun for me and I am very glad that I have had chances to take the opportunity to launch my writing. But if someone tell me that I am cowardice, I will get mad with him/her."

-----

The first daughter joined the war at this time.

1st:"It is a different object.

Ebata:"What do you mean ?"

1st:"They have different degrees of ability in any field, like English, math, and writing, you said. I know well that the equality is not guaranteed in the world. In fact I have experimented it for a long time."

Ebata:"Yes. And ?"

1st: "But only "love" should not be just the object"

Ebata:"What?"

1st: "I can accept your opinion that "English", "math" and "writing" are kinds of measure of their own capability. But they cannot complete "love" on their own.

Ebata:"you want to say, "Interactive" ?"

1st:"I don't know that, but that's it."

Ebata："..."

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

These days, I am doing "prediction diet",

The diet is to estimate my own weight before mounting the weighing machine.

When the difference between your prediction weight and real weight is less than 0.1 kg, you win. Otherwise you lose.

You also plot these both value on a graph.

What a fun of this process is that you are able to become to see the following.

- The impact is not for the dinner last night, but ramen and dumpling three days before, this morning.

- How heavy my constipation from yesterday is

- Tuesday and Saturday is the day I lose weight.(in my case)

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"Human body is a control system" is my philosophy.

If it is true, we are going to feel annoyed that we, who are owner the control systems are at the mercy of the uncontrollable bodies.

Of course, I know that we cannot control a whole of my body at our proposal( for example, diseases), however,

"Do you want to overwhelm even your weight on your own will ?"

In the sightseeing tour of Taiwan, we, whole family went to National CKS Memorial Hall.

Personally, I am very interested in a history of confusion between Taiwan and China in the of WW2. However the residence time was just half an hour.

I wanted to say

"Give me three hours"

But even I know that it might be impossible.

Persons like me, are few, I also think.

-----

In the hall, I talked to senior daughter.

Ebata:"Did you study the history around this period for college exams?"

Daughter:"I don't like this era and area."

Ebata:"Well why?"

Daughter:" "Gang of Four" and "cultural revolution", there were a lot of bad stories in this era"

Ebata:"What?"

Daughter: "Well, young people shouting" Revolution "made domestic messy ..."

Ebata:"That was a story of the" Continent (People's Republic of China)". Cultural Revolution has not occurred in Island (Taiwan) ! "

Daughter: "W-Taiwan, is China isn't it?"

-----

No way, in such a local (inside the Ebata's), I didn't expect to face this stereotypical

"Two Chinese" issues

(Continuation from yesterday)

Currently, my home mail server is still "unbelievable" in the other e-mail server.

Though trying variously while changing the setting, basically computers are stupid. If I set a different parameter, computers will only answer "I can not authenticate you". Of course, the computer will not explain the reasons.

For example, if there are nine items and three patterns for the setting, 19683 times trials are needed in order to be able to reach the correct answer.

If there are samples on the Internet, it is good. However, I cannot find the samples quite easily.

This is natural.

The thoughtless sample disclosure will give server attackers hints of huge attacks.

-----

I continue to be told from the other mail server "I cannot believe you"

To be honest, my heart is likely to break.

It is not only the human world that "being unbelievable" is "hard".

For this two years, I wrote the story that I have been trying to install IT services in the neighborhood association(NA) and failing the trials.

The reason I gave up the trials perfectly, is "a call from the Police Station(PS)".

-----

I have worked as a press officer, so I had to exchange communications with many people.

However I don't like a telephone conversation because interrupting my time selfishly, so I always ask others to use e-mails.

The other day, a member of NA raised an objection not to get a mail from me.

I gave an advice that "try to change a part of your mail filter, and come to get the mail"

After that, he went to the branch office and asked to be changed.

There was no problem at that time.

-----

I misunderstood the skill of a teller of branch office.

The recent their skills are on a low level incredibly

I was afraid that they didn't know the thought "white lists".

As a result, a huge amount of spam email has come to the person's smartphone.

(To be continued)

Up to now, I have always been in the position that "PC literacy education" for elementary and junior high school students is "essential" and "bringing a smartphone to school" is "obvious".

Unfortunately, this controversy can be said to have been settled while the curfew was issued in the declaration of emergency.

Needless to say, smartphones are now exerting a great deal of power in mental measures for children who cannot go out.

From now on, "children who cannot take online classes" will become a social problem.

-----

It's too late to learn the literacy of smartphones and PCs when taking online classes.

When the interface and operation methods are part of the body, online lessons become "useful".

The senior citizens of the neighborhood association prove it, who shouts out loud "I can't use email".

(Here you can see in the data how they are disturbing local activities)

-----

Children are more likely to learn naturally if they are given a smartphone or PC. even if not, it can be expected that the investment in education will be small (the basis data is the daughters of the Ebata family).

The problem is "teachers".

We don't need a teacher, who cannot create teaching materials for online classes, or cannot broadcast online from my teacher's home.

The time is coming soon.

I think that lazy teachers who do not desperately study literacy as an Internet service provider(×user), should think positively about changing jobs.

-----

I don't think this new coronavirus erosion will end this time alone.

Untreated killer viruses are always ready to be activated.

In the first place, even without this catastrophe, class closures due to the flu occurred every year.

Especially in Japan, typhoon disasters occur every year. And the future of a major earthquake that kills tens of thousands of people is definite.

Meanwhile, educational infrastructure (schools, etc.) can always be said to be precarious.

There is an urgent need to establish an educational system that does not assume "containers (school building)".

Then, children should come together only for "the teacher's online lesson, which is easy to understand".

If this happens, the child will become aware of the reality of "class skipping = suicide", in the the "classes where unlimited skipping is permitted" --Although it may take time.

-----

I asked my daughters, that many teachers still lack literacy as Internet education service providers. Furthermore, it seems that some teachers are not willing to acquire that IT literacy as Internet education service provider.

This is "Being thoroughly disgusted".

"A person who teaches others, does not study about area of weaknesses" --- Except for people of other occupations, only "teachers" can never afford this excuse.

Of course, teachers are human too. so first they also have to beg for the teaching.

Teachers also have to pay a fair price for education or politely ask young people to teach.

Not as "acceptance" but as "obvious".

I am an engineer who is not loved by the English, but I am forced to read vast amounts of English every day.

by computers.

-----

Once, when I was tuning the system at my wife's parents' house, my mother-in-law said to me, 'Well, it's great to read so many horizontal letters'

Oh, I see. I've just realized that this is also English.

But when engineers struggle with these messages from the computer, they am not 'reading' English.

They are 'observing' the word.

-----

They don't need to read the English that comes up on the computer console.

"Error", "unexpected", "unknown", "irregular", "suspended", "failed", "not found", "expired", "serious", "warning", "overflowed", "invalid", "too long", "out of range", "occurred", "dropped".....

In short, if they find any of the above words, they've failed -- that's all they need to know.

-----

After all, "creating a system" means as same as

"They will just keep changing the way they do things over and over again until they don't see these messages anymore"

"Is it no problem to publish a person's pass/fail on a qualifying exam in the media?"

I think it is a serious problem, however, if you know of a logical justification for this, please let me know.

To begin with, I believe that those who have left the imperial family are ordinary civilians, and their spouses are unquestionably civilians.

Then, of course, their privacy must be protected.

-----

There was a previous court case on defamation regarding the reporting of a criminal case involving the child of a prominent politician.

At this time, I remember that the judiciary said

'Children of prominent authorities are public because they are likely to inherit their power.'

and dismissed the suit.

What I would like to know is the logic of the above in this case (regardless of the "pros" or "cons").

For example, 'there is a possibility of restoration of the imperial family after leaving the imperial family' or something like that.

-----

If you're talking about publicity.

"Seating two hours before the start of a regular or special session of the Diet and a TOEIC test taken by all members of the Diet."

This is far more public.

- Publication of TOEIC scores for all members of Congress

- Disqualification of persons who avoid taking the examination

with the condition.

English is the de facto international language, and members of Congress are the front for diplomacy.

-----

Anyway--

Unless the person is a criminal, we are willing to cooperate in "forgetting" if he or she wants us to forget.

My wife and I watched the NHK BS1 special "The Ukrainian Presidency: Military Invasion, 72 Hours of Tension, Complete Version" over three days.

The Ebata family's dinner is based on "NHK News 7.

I use the time before and after to watch another program with my wife.

In this case, we divided the program into 3 times.

-----

It's like watching a movie with a lot of great content that I can't believe happened in real life."

I completely agree with my wife's opinions.

The events of the past 72 hours, told in a matter-of-fact manner, astonished me,

There is no excessive staging, no music, no talk of made-up "love" or "justice",

Still, by the end of the program, I couldn't hold back my tears either -- not to mention my wife's.

-----

Wife: "If Japan is invaded militarily, will you fight too ?"

Ebata: "I think I will fight. In my case, the reason for fighting is not even one percent 'patriotism,' but only 100 percent 'I'm angry.

Wife: "That should be enough."

Ebata: "But in my case, I don't think I can march 2km when equipped with weapons, so I will ask to place me in cyber warfare."

-----

I thought this program was produced in the U.S., the U.K., or France, but to my surprise, it was produced by Japan's NHK.

I was kind of happy. I feel like buying lunch for everyone involved in the production.

With NHK News, NHK language programs, NHK News (earthquake bulletins, disaster), and NHK Documents, I am at least aware that I am getting my money's worth for the NHK subscription fee.

As long as NHK continues to provide documentaries of such high quality, I will continue to pay NHK subscription fees as NHK wants

NHK's signature program, "Project X," is back after 18 years.

I had very high expectations for this program to portray real engineers in the field, and after two broadcasts, I am delighted with the program.

Again, I am "delighted.

I look forward to continuing this program.

I am reminding you of this in a scattered manner because what I am about to describe reads like an "anti-Project X."

But I also think 'someone has to say it,' so I will.

======

(1) Engineers in our country are treated very poorly in terms of treatment, annual income, and understanding of technology.

(a) That is why "Project X" is accepted as an "excellent program" that illuminates overlooked engineers.

(b) On the other hand, the program creates a climate of acceptance for 'keeping the status of engineers at a low level.'

======

(2) Not even their supervisors are willing to praise engineers who have achieved their goals publicly.

(a) In "Project X," this kind of boss behavior is treated as a "virtue" throughout.

(b) This craftsman-like "apprenticeship system" has reduced engineers to a low status.

(c) "I appreciate you in my mind" is synonymous with "I don't appreciate you, which is a significant deviation from today's values, and again, they produce the program with Showa values.

======

(3) Engineers themselves are not willing to publicly announce their technology.

(a) The "Neglect of information dissemination" in the name of "virtue of modesty" is noticeable. The engineers themselves make too little effort to have their work widely appreciated.

(b) even if we talk about intellectual property or trade secrets, there are many ways to do it. If you don't disseminate your work correctly and insist on its usefulness, the technology will fall into disuse.

======

(4) There is too much bias toward the "weak group strikes back" scenario.

(a) "The Weak Group Strikes Back" is an exciting drama.

(b) However, it is no exaggeration to say that (unfortunately) a project's success or failure is determined by its investment (money), human resources (people), and time frame (the limit to which the investment can continue).

(c) The above (b) is not limited to engineering but is expected for all projects, but this understanding is left unexplained.

======

(5) The stories of "failure" covered in "Project X" are too microscopically biased in the direction of "technology" and "personnel affairs.

(a) Although biased toward technical failures, most project failures are due to inadequate market research and poor preliminary preparation

(b) To create drama without that story would seem grossly lacking objectivity.

======

(6) No one talks about (1) through (5) above.

(a) There must be a lot of people in our country who are well versed in (1) through (5) above (e.g., university professors doing organizational studies, bureaucrats managing budgets for national projects, etc.)

(b) However, I have not seen (or have remained silent about) anyone evaluating "Project X" from a "project management" perspective. Well, I understand how you feel.)

======

(7) In general, "Project X" "exploited the dreams and hopes of engineers" to "complete the project," which does not seem to have changed one millimeter from the "exploitation of their challenging " of today's youth.

======

Again, I am "delighted" with NHK's "Project X."

I am "a little" concerned, but I look forward to more of your programs.