(Continuation from yesterday)
====== Ebata's answer From here ======
In conclusion, everything is "Dr.Shibata's point is correct".
In fact, I think I didn't really understand the realities of outbreaks.
Infections that I have been aware of around me, are influenza, colds, dysentery, cholera, and tuberculosis.
Influenza basically converges when the season changes, and containment of other infections has succeeded due to the efforts of many people.
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By the way, as a calculator, I do not have an "infection explosion" , but a "calculation explosion on a daily basis."
Computer often causes the phenomenon of overflow.
This means that I can accidentally set your computer's calculation parameters to generate exponential numbers, which can make my computer shut down.
It is, so to speak, an "overshoot" of computer resources.
The "overshoot" of the computer occurs instantly immediately after the calculation is started (the moment the return key is pressed).
So,
If the "overshoot" really occurs in the real world, major cities in Japan will be paralyzed in one month, and corpses will be left on the street within two months.
This was, in my mind, a matter of expectation.
However I downgraded "it is just a story of the virtual world inside the computer"
"Does overflow (overshoot) really appear in the real world?"
with no basis.
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So now I'm stunned.
I have never seen a case in which the phenomenon of the virtual world in a computer appeared so perfectly in the real world.
Needless to say, COVID-19, which has neither an effective vaccine nor a means for curative cure, is horribly "compatible" with computer calculations (simulations).
There is no doubt that the current government COVID-19 countermeasure team and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare use computer simulations every day.
(It depends on the model, but if the population is around 10 million people, I think that it can be calculated even with a personal computer).
Therefore, if we do not follow the current COVID-19 infection control measures indicated by the national and local governments,
"25 million infections, 640,000 deaths" (Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare 2007 (13 years ago))
I also know that the above can easily become a reality.
(The reason why the number of people of "25 million" is the upper limit, is that the number of people who have acquired immunity to infect will decrease the infection rate (R0 < 1).
Anyway, I think that the government policy of current "80% reduction in contact" is trusted based on scientific and mathematical grounds.
(Maybe I guess the threshold that leads to "R0 <1.0" is between 70% and 80%)
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Anyway, Dr Shibata's comment
However, if I would like to add only one point, Mr. Ebata. you could not anticipate this "nightmare", but you could expect the number itself, Could you?
I have to admit that it is ture.
====== Ebata's answer To here ======