"The probability of occurrence of World War III"

"There hasn't happened the WW3 yet, so we cannot calculate the probability. We need at least more than 100 times of the WW3".

This way of thinking is an ordinal approach of probability estimation.

On the other hand,

"From the data of the second World War and the First World War, we try to guess" is that the approach of Bayesian estimation.

I read the above comment about Bayesian estimation.

That phrase describes it perfectly.

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The other day, when you came down to the living, my daughters watch the TV program that displayed the words "AKB48" and "general election".

I knew well that "no comment gives a peace to my family", I glanced the display within 3 seconds, and came back to my room soon.

At that time,

I happened to think over "can I calculate the lifecycle of an idol group by Bayesian estimation?"

Anyway, I can get enough referenced data.

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I thought both "It might be good as an idea of new series" and "there also is danger of life" at the same time.

I also think that it might be possible to calculate "which is more dangerous material of "Senkaku Islands issue" or "AKB48".