"The probability of occurrence of World War III"

"There hasn't happened the WW3 yet, so we cannot calculate the probability. We need at least more than 100 times of the WW3".

This way of thinking is an ordinal approach of probability estimation.

On the other hand,

"From the data of the second World War and the First World War, we try to guess" is that the approach of Bayesian estimation.

I read the above comment about Bayesian estimation.

That phrase describes it perfectly.

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The other day, when you came down to the living, my daughters watch the TV program that displayed the words "AKB48" and "general election".

I knew well that "no comment gives a peace to my family", I glanced the display within 3 seconds, and came back to my room soon.

At that time,

I happened to think over "can I calculate the lifecycle of an idol group by Bayesian estimation?"

Anyway, I can get enough referenced data.

-----

I thought both "It might be good as an idea of new series" and "there also is danger of life" at the same time.

I also think that it might be possible to calculate "which is more dangerous material of "Senkaku Islands issue" or "AKB48".

This was a chat at the dinner of last night before yesterday.

Daughter:"Papa, You are late to go home everyday. Do you have an affair?"

I have listened the above phrase several times since now.

I am afraid that she has been affected by foolish dramas.

So I always tell her that "You don't watch foolish dramas, not animation. Watching animations will let you happy easier."

That's aside.

-----

According to the Internet information (and it is the most incredible new sources), The persons having an affair are relatively large ratio.

Though I am not interested in the process of the affair, I think the cost of the affair might be bigger that I expect. I wonder on earth how they could get the money.

I don't envy the affair but money.

Now my fee for an article that I have saved for the school expenses of the law seminar has been collected compulsorily for educational expenses for my daughters.

Even if I have a aspiration of the affair, my daughters are destroying it from amount of resources, monetarily and violently.

My present entertainments are just "Hokkyoku-Ramen" and sauna of the super public bath.

How do they on earth suspect their father's affair ?

After the example of your father's work,

I want them to calculate the cost of affair.

-----

What I want to say in this diary,

Around 10 P.M. Younger co-worker coming to me for consultation of the material soup stock of the patent, even I was exhausted with late-night overtime.

Let you think out tips of the patent by yourself. You are a researcher aren't You?

Still if you want to need my help, write to my daughter and clear my false charge.

This is the condition for my join to the patent brain storming.

(Continuation from yesterday)

I have a lot of things I don't have interest in, beside the cars.

When I went to a barbershop during the period of 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan, the haairdresser started to chat with me,

"It was a great goal of Japan team at last night game wasn't it?"

I just said,

"Was it so ?"

After that, the talk was stopped and we kept silent.

-----

When I went to the NHK's facility to get some materials, the elderly gentleman said something to me in the restroom,

"Well, "Rakuten" did it"

For the first second, I couldn't understand what he was saying, and for the next second, I could understand it, and the last second, I shut the tallk.

"I am not interested in baseball at all"

I saw the man looked uncomfortable, and I felt sorry for him.

It is easier for me to understand any English conversation than gossip items of entertainment world.

-----

After all, I come to think

"It is the affair of other people isn't it?"

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

I think the the collected papers become more sensational.

Not only the cover, they include manga and columns, like literary coterie magazine,

The editorial department of the society try to make the collected papers like, "Shounen Jump" and "Hana to Yume" that girls and boys who are waiting for.

Now when we think the population who join the comic market and NikoNiko Super meeting, it is clear that some AI research engineers enjoy making little magazines.

That might be good chances to ask the person to draw a illustration and write SF stories or columns.

However, the person who works as both a company researcher and a subculture creator is likely to not be coming out, so we cannot find them out.

In my case, I also rarely find them out by my private special connection in my company.

-----

Now, both the ruling party and the opposition party keep the booth in NekoNeko Super meeting.

the out-of-date activities of academic math and science should be blamed

"they are just idle"

"The level of "IT literacy of our country" is worse than I have expected"

I wrote the phrase in the latest released column, however I think this problem is not only for elder persons" but for entire people in Japan,

I look like that the front of current compulsory and high education field, makes a studious effort to keep the IT literacy low.

For example, painful KANJI read/write training, homework that can not be accepted unless it is "handwritten", a boring "computational drill" using only simple arithmetic operations

First of all, I think that it is difficult to change IT literacy unless it changes from here to the root.

-----

Well, as I write such a thing, objections comes out right away, so I will write a countermeasure now.

- Do not write "kanji" but study "reading" and "meaning" of KANJI character.(in the first place, KANJI is needed for handwriting now are their name and address)

- Copy and paste problem of electronicized report can be found with application using PC (teachers do not know this application)

- Question on "Fermi estimation" problem, not "calculation drill" (Teacher needs intelligence based on "Fermi estimation")

(To be continued)

(Continuation from yesterday)

"He carry his folly too far. He doesn't understand how painful it is to spend the day wearing the pumps"

I heard my wife's opinion, I think

"Well, that might be good"

For this problem, it is not enough to accuse both (1) The existence of a company with such in-house rules, and (2) a statement from the Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare.

So I want to make an offer to shoes makers or venture company.

How do you like to make a cloud funding ?

The purpose is "making men's pumps".

The target is commercial business, for not only the above (1)(2) but also "men's dressing".

It is a waste that the aiming at a niche market for women-dressing hobbies, or people with differences in body and mind.

The aim of this fund is to create a new decorative culture called "men's pumps".

This is a new field that the world has not yet conceived.

I know that there are a lot of problems about market reseraches, concepts, channels, etc. However this is a hope for shoes markets and a busness chance,

-----

Besides, if such a parliamentary remark is realized, I think that the ruling party, the opposition party, and the government will improve the people's favor.

Question: "Today we will bring a present to the minister. Pumps for you. Please try."

Minister: "Oh, this is a feeling I have never experienced in my life."

Question: "Hey, will you try to walk to here?"

Minister: "What does this mean ..."

Depending on the remarks of this "..." part, I think that Japan move just a little.

For example, it would be nice if members of the cabinet got deeper understanding of "the gender divergence" in the wake of this.

With the lifting of the state of emergency declaration, school classes are back in session.

The instructors and teachers in the classroom seem to be wearing face masks, made of clear acrylic plates.

I heard that students who has watched

"A splattering of spit on the teacher's facemask"

are experiencing the horror of droplet infection.

-----

"This is a really fieldwork class in't is?"

And I am deeply impressed.

When you participate in an international conference, there will be an "optional tour" or sightseeing tour during the conference.

Well, international conferences are usually held in famous tourist spots, so it's a kind of "reward" for the presenters who have been busy to death preparing their presentations before the conference.

I'm not sure if such "optional tours" exist in the Olympics or Paralympics, but normally the athletes could have enjoyed sightseeing in the host city.

Of course, this time, the Japanese government will not allow athletes and the press to freely walk around the country, but...

In my opinion, an "athlete" or "press" is essentially a challenger.

Maybe they'll show up in Asakusa, Ginza, Shinjuku, Shibuya, and Akihabara.

If they can end up with "zero" in spite of tens of thousands of visitors to Japan, I believe that will be the "great achievement of the OLYMPALA".

-----

Maybe it will never be zero.

Every day, the escapades of "athletes" and "press" is going to make the pages of newspapers and weekly magazines.

(1) Is the "athlete" or the "press" to blame for breaking the rules?

(2) Are the governance controls of the Olympic host committee to blame?

will be problems.

I'm afraid that the Japanese government will force the offending team to leave the country -> will worsen relations with that country -> will break off diplomatic relations.

-----

Well, my predictions have been off, so I'm not too worried.

I once predicted that the US presidential election process would plunge the country into civil war. And I had made a wild prediction that the United States would plunge into civil war during the presidential election process, and that the leading states would declare independence.

But, well, I guess some of the predictions came true when 'there was an attack on the US Capitol by sympathizers of the defeated president.

Previously, I argued a conclusion that "there is no reason to restrict defense spending within 1%. It is just a rounded number.

However, Now our country is going to historical change the policy of defense spending.

It is double expand plan of defense spending, that is equal to 2% of GDP.

As far as I watch, there is few strong public outcry.

If we had been in 1960's, more than three hundred thousand people would have surrounded around National Diet Building, a riot occurred, and the cabinet collapsed. However time have changed.

-----

I think that (some) opposition parties are absolutely right that they say that the movement and ruling parties try to increase in military...or defense spending, and induce to revise the Constitution.

However, it is true that we can think seriously about defense spending and constitution reform at t times life these.

(Incidentally, I think that I am "left wing" with deviation score of about 52, like advocating the strength of cyber military, and being basically "Constitutionalists")

Like children who come to be blue, watching a pile of homework at the last week in summer vacation, now we are starting to open the textbook, leaving for long time.

I was thinking about this again after reviewing yesterday's blog.

If my, "How to build a hydrogen bomb the easy way" is ordered to be deleted by the authorities,

I think the comic & animated "Dr. Stone" should have a no-publication order.

However, if such an order is indeed issued, I would join the plaintiffs in an action to invalidate the order.

-----

I mean, I can name five comics that describe the manufacture of explosives, just in my memory.

However, those books may be safe because they list the ingredients, but do not specifically describe the ratio of ingredients or the manufacturing process.

Certainly, an explosives manual without numbers in it would be completely useless.