It's been a year since I received that shocking email from my "Dr. Shibata of the Run-Over".

I was eating lunch at the lodge of a ski resort for a one-day solo skiing trip when I read that e-mail.

I was so engrossed in reading that I didn't even notice that I dropped a side dish from my spoon.

For me, that e-mail was the turning point in my involvement with the "new Corona".

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I feel like I'm being overwhelmed by the daily news, and the whole picture is getting blurry. So, here is a monthly summary of the major developments related to the new Corona.

2019/12 Outbreak of pneumonia patients with unknown cause in Wuhan, China

2020/01

2020/02 Diamond Princess incident, request to close elementary, junior high and high schools

2020/03 WHO Pandemic Declaration, Mask Riots

2020/04 Emergency Declaration Order

2020/05 Emergency declaration extended→released

2020/06 Request for voluntary restraint on movement lifted, over 100 newly infected (Japan (not only Tokyo))

2020/07 "Go To Travel" campaign started, more than 1,000 newly infected people (domestic (not only Tokyo))

2020/08

2020/09

2020/10 "Go To Travel" Tokyo added.

2020/11 "Go To" Sapporo and Osaka suspended; Tokyo Metropolitan Government resumes request for shorter hours at restaurants.

2020/12 Healthcare system strained, Pfizer vaccine application filed, mutant strain found in Japan

2021/01 Recurrence of emergency declaration, complete suspension of "Go To Travel".

2021/02 Emergency declaration extended, vaccination started

2021/03 Emergency declaration lifted

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Looking at it this way, we can see that there was no significant movement in January and August-September of 2020.

And it is clear that the "carelessness" of January is being paid for in April and May, and the "loose estimates" of August and September are being paid for in November and December.

However, the government's response is generally reasonable from my point of view as a system engineer.

Preventing the annihilation of a system while switching it on and off is the basis of control systems, from home air conditioners to industrial robots to traffic control systems.

And a nation is a huge system made up of system elements called "citizens".

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The maximum number of people vaccinated (1st dose) from Feb. 17 to today is 70,000/day.

Assuming that this number can be increased to "triple" (200,000 people per day), the number of days required to complete the first round of vaccination for 126 million people would be 630 days, 21 months, or 1 year and 9 months.

Incidentally, the government seems to be estimating a six-fold increase. This is because "the vaccination of 36 million elderly people will be completed in 2 months and 3 weeks", which means 3600/83 days = 433,000 people.

In the U.S., it seems to be 2 million people/day, so the pace may be even higher.

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It may be possible to vaccinate the entire population (only those who wish to be vaccinated) with the first vaccine before the end of the year, but--

The only thing we can be sure of is that we won't make it to the Tokyo Olympics.

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When and where will the rebound from the "off" of the emergency declaration come?

No one can know this much.