I can't get it out of my home right now (I work from home).

My daughters and wife are returning to life before the coronal disaster, though,

Right now, I am the least likely source of coronavirus infection in my family.

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I have already written (or co-authored) three columns on this corona disaster from a medical/technical point of view.

However, I still think "when I was infected, I am infected" and I've never thought of myself as an exception.

Infection is a simple probability.

Infection prevention is a "low-probability behavior" and its "continuation".

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I'm honestly surprised to hear some local government leaders say, 'I don't see the point of setting a limit on the number of people in a dinner party.

p(α, N) = 1 - (1 - α)^N where α: probability of infection (e.g., 0.1) N: number of people eating (N = 0,1,2,...) and draw a graph in Excel.

Four people have a 34% risk of infection, but 10 people break 65% and 30 people break 95%.

Of course, the ideal is zero (i.e. "don't do any dinner party"). In this case, the risk of infection is 0%.

In this way, I think the idea that the minimum number of people who make up the body of a dinner is "four" is persuasive.

The above formula is too simple (*), but I think it is enough to derive the basis for the "four" basically.

(*) I can also do simulations based on random numbers and seating position. Maybe even worse infection probabilities can be calculated.

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In any case, if I get infected or sick, I will publish in this diary.

In real time as much as possible.

I will release a detailed report on the subsequent responses, analyze the causes of the infection in my own way, and summarize the warnings and recommendations based on them as a fourth column.

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Anyway, since I've been working from home, I've had to deal with more and more sales people coming to my home.

Recently, I noticed the magic word to fight off this sale.

"I'm in a (remote) meeting"

Most sales will walk away with this.

So, let's abuse this magic word.