You (female) discover the woman underwear that is not yours in your closet when you return from a business trip.
You wonder if your partner (male) has an affair.
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Condition: You discover the underwear.
Hypothesis: Your partner has an affair.
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In order to estimate the hypothesis by basian, you need at least three parameters.
(1)First of all, you have to estimate the probability of the underwear existence under the condition of "your partner has an affair".
- In this case, the underwear is a panty.
- There seems to be no explanation of the reason that the panty exist here.
- However, your partner should act carefully if he has an affair.
You estimate that the probability of the panty existence is 50%, if your partner has an affair.
(2)Next, you have to estimate the probability of the underwear existence under the condition of "your partner doesn't have an affair".
- Your partner bought the panty instead of a handkerchief by mistake.
- It is a panty of your friend. She just left it.
- Your partner tries to give you the panty as a present.
- (You would not want to think, but) it is his panty.
You estimate that the probability of the panty existence is 5%, if your partner doesn't has an affair.
(3)Finally, you have to estimate the (prior) probability of "your partner has an affair".
There is data that 4% of married partner betray spouse, so you adopt this.
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Question.
Calculate the probability of your partner's affair when you find a panty that is not yours.
("The signal and the noise" P.266-268 Nate Silver)
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I think it is very interesting if the problem will be the college examination.
I am sure that statistics and mathematics become familiar with high school students absolutely.
Previously, I tried to calculate the same pattern's problem (Disease incidence and medication) by Basian , and finally I needed more than three hours and ten calculation sheets.
I had enough of such calculation, now I use a tool "BAYONET" that is presented by NTT DATA Mathematical Systems Co.Ltd.
As the result, I could get the answer of "29%" as the same of the book that told me.
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Even if a panty is in your chest, the possibility of your partner's affair is still around 29 percent.
It is not enough to cross-examine your partner. 。
You should look for further evidence, and increase the confidence by the recalculation.
At regular compulsive workout day of my office a month,
my junior daughter of the seventh grade handed me down a paper when I had a dinner alone.
And she said to me, "Papa, can you solve this problem?"
"4x10=17, 4x11=18,4x12=19,... Oh No! I can't do it. I cannot find the more than 20 number" Alice seems to try to a multiplication, but what is she on earth doing? (The author of "Alice in Wonderland" Lewis Carol was a famous mathematician)
"Linear acceleration and geometrical progression seems not to be matched in this problem."
"Even if I try to make another meaning for symbol "x" or "=", I cannot escape from restricting the word "multiplication"."
"This problem might be on the integration field, and if so, multi-peaks problems of continuous function should be nonsense."
Leaving the table for another bowl of rice, my daughter passed me the paper. So, I could not move my body with watching the problem and grasping the bowl.
(To be continued)
(Continuation from yesterday)
It means, I want to propose
"Data analyst "Tsukue-kun""
as a "Chihayafuru" spin-off work,
"Tsukue-kun" is, currently, has a data analysis in probability theory only using the notebook.
Probability theory is basic of data analysis, but it is regrettable indeed.
- I want to teach the "conditional probability" to him (however, he know it because he is a high school students)
- I want to tell the techniques of "Bayesian analysis"
- If necessary, I can give him a personal computer and Bayesian network analysis tool.
- It may be taught how to make "reasoning engine "Shinobu-chan", assuming a virtual Queen game.
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Dear author, and the editorial department of this spin-off work, even when it is realized,
If you have any demand, I will be in charge of supervisor of math field.
The hope from me, is that good-looking "Tsukue-kun" in the work is enough.
I know the announcement of Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, I visited the top pages of HP of principal political parties.
Japan Communist Party
Citizen of Tokyo first,
Minshin Party
Tokyo Imperial restoration party
Liberal Democratic Party
Komeito party
Even I visited these pages, I could know the directions of each party.
- displaying just photos of candidates or their group
->"I don't care your faces at all"
- displaying photos of street speech and movies of the party representatives' questions by Youtube
->"I am not interested in your photos and movies of your activities at all"
- displaying long and bored planks or manifest of the party with little letters.
->"Do they really want to send their intentions to readers?"
- displaying only the past policy implementation of the party (and the are fabled)
->" I don't want to know the past activates for THIS election"
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Compared with the tops of HP at this time, I know, the HP is not for
the voters who want to know the plank, but for activity reports to their own party members
At least, the party who has the awful top pages will not get my vote on next Sunday.
At the present, I prefer a party who writes
their policies simply in one sense or another
to other parties.
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Coming week, I will check each top pages of the above again.
I hope each party will try to repair the pages to be easily understandable for our votes.
If possible, I hope that each party shows me their spirit and gut, for example, displaying a comparative table to include your part and other parties.
- Going to attend the club of Ginza will be the status of that person
- Owning Benz will be the status of that person
- getting a greeting from the president of the ruling party will be the status of that person
When I talked to my wife "I cannot understand their feeling", she said to me,
Wife:" "Showing their status" might not be their purposes"
Ebata:"What is it?"
Wife: "These behaviors may be just "tools" of as a platform of personal network to extend their work."
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I see.
Personal activities must be limited, however, even if they can establish a cooperative relationship with other people, they might have valuable "tools".
But thinking about it, I don't have to care of it at all.
What is my "currency" to evaluate that person is not at least "personality" "humanity" "kindness".
It is not a "hobby", and I will not evaluate anyone who shows off "knowledge" that I am not interested in.
"Belief" "Thought" etc. are out of the question.
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My currency is "technology power".
I feel overwhelming charm about "overwhelming technical power" that I do not have.
So, for me, "the telegram of the wedding ceremony from the ruling party leader" is just a piece of paper that does not become a calculation paper.
I would rather to give me "the telegram of the wedding ceremony written "solution search program code that realizes 1000 times faster speed than in the past".
(Continuation from yesterday)
At first I was really confused,
"Why they can criticize my work without reading the content"
Reading not a content, but another's short message, they ride on
I want to get in touch with people's opinions and comments, think for about three seconds, and do "moralists who just criticize and just leave" comfortably.
I want to press the "good" button without verifying the source, and to retweet bossy with only the three words of "This is terrible".
It looks like easy, and I am going to make me feel good.
However, I think that I have a self-control not to do that, because I have been a victim against those activities.
But at the same time, I also have a sense of "weakness in control".
So, I "do not send any message on SNS (in principle)".
Even when writing in the diary, after a certain period of time (at least 3 days), the source and the facts have become clear to some extent, I will start writing something After securing the bridgehead.
In my "unlearned" "pettiness" and "coward", this "coward" is a remarkable feature.
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The subject of this column is "The Trigonometric Function Necessity Theory and How to Break Personality".
This title is good, that was made by editor Ms.M, is a general and well-balanced,
moreover, in order to avoid the troublesome by
"the person who only reads the short message of others without reading the content, and is just riding on it"
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I proposed the following subjects,
"The primary purpose of schooling is" the destruction of high efficiency individuality "
and,
"Education institution as a manufacturing device of "uniformized human""
However they were rejected silently
Recently, there have been a number of articles and comments criticizing those who have advocated and implemented a specific response to the new virus.
In response to these articles and comments,
A person who ran away from a burning house, says "difficulty with firefighting procedures" during a subsequent site inspection. I feel that it's tremendously vulgar.
"Shooting someone who has fought back from a safe distance, after everything is done"
This is exactly it.
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Well, in my experiments, I was once forced out in front of a burning house. And I've had the same experience of "I've managed to put out the fire, and after that I've had a difficult time with it".
I am determined to never forgive these "shoot me in the back" people for the rest of my life.
Of course, I'm a working man (and I was a theatergoer in my youth),so in daily life, "Fair face, foul heart" is a thoroughgoing practice.
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However, it's also true that even if these are "shots in the back" acts, you can't make things better if you stop all the criticism.
According to my columns, I think criticism of others makes up half of the content.
In other words, it is me who "shoots people in the back who have been fighting".
But I don't believe at all that "those who are criticizing others (me) must indulge in criticism from others".
(To be continued)
I cannot say much about the Supreme Court's decision on marital separation.
Because I recognize a name as an "object identifier".
This is because I believe that everyone should be able to change both their "last name" and their "first name" to any identifier they want, of their own free will, at the age of legal majority (18).
I think the closest way to think about this is the "self-discriminating function" of trademarks.
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From a system engineer's point of view, the "family register" is a very well-designed system.
From the point of view of the controller (state power), it is very convenient to be able to manage the individual as a component in the box (structure) of the family.
As long as there is a framework of the family, the roles of patriarch, protector, and protected are created, and even if left alone, the individual will be managed within this framework.
# At the same time, we are creating harm by generating abuse, sexual violence and domestic violence.
The biggest advantage of this system is tax payment. It is a very convenient system because it allows you to roughly calculate the total amount of tax payments in units of households.
If you think about the fact that students are grouped into "classes" until high school, it is easy to understand.
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If you're asking, "Well, how do we manage individuals? I can answer that "My Number Card" already exists.
Younger people may not know this, but the "My Number Card," which exists today as a matter of course, is a system that was called the "Total National ID Number System" until about 2000 A.D. Every time the government proposed this system, it was crushed by the people.
Of course, I was on the side of the "crushers" -- I believed that if the state had such system, the world of George Orwell's "1984" could appear easily.
But, you know, in the end, the crimes have been identified by surveillance cameras and located by GPS phones. And nobody doesn't say anything about them.
On the contrary, those images are usually broadcasted on the news, aren't they?
At the end of the day, we have chosen a "safe society with mutual monitoring of crime" over "invasion of personal privacy.
I'm sure we've been given plenty of time to complain.
Let's be more specific.
All of the neighborhood and community associations that filed lawsuits against Google Maps Street View have withdrawn their lawsuits.
This fact alone is sufficient.
This is a bit off topic.
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We have voluntarily accepted to be "controlled by the state with numbers".
Then, we should be managed by numbers, as the state expects.
If the system is managed by numbers, we don't need for households, or even for surnames and first names (although they will remain in a formal sense).
If it used to take several days to mobilize a large number of government workers to look up a family register, today's computer system would complete the job in seconds.
If the computer manages the individual, it will undoubtedly be less expensive, faster to process, and reduce the dynamic of labor costs.
If the state tries to interfere with the computer, the evidence will remain, and if it tries to erase the evidence, the evidence of the erasing process will remain.
Arbitrary intervention by the state would also be more difficult and troublesome than ever before (though not impossible, if the state power gets serious).
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So, back to the subject at hand, I think that
"Why are the courts and the Diet in such a mess over the "handling of identifiers"?"
Separate surnames for married couples? -- On the contrary, why don't we just use "my number" to accept marriage registrations?
The right to change one's name? -- After termination of parental rights, it is my right to decide my own name, isn't it?
Forcing the legislature (Diet) and the courts to make decisions for each other? -- That's just because you have some kind of illusion about the "symbol" that is your name.
That's what I usually think about.
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On the other hand, I know that there are probably no people who would agree with such a thorough "name = symbol" approach.
In fact, I think there are many people who are reading this diary today and cannot understand my idea.
That's why I keep my mouth shut (just writting).
I am quite shocked to hear that the judge of the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the decision of "(pregnancy) abortion is a women's right"
Speaking from my experience of two years work in the U.S. I know well "the people of the U.S. nation are more conservative than that of Japan".
While the days, I had known that "the nation in the country is liberal, intelligent and logical like the Democratic party" is just our illusion.
However I often said that "Don't believe the news headline easily", so I will research the news and descript about them again.
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Yesterday, Mr. Odajima Takashi passed away. He was 65 years old.
My base-knowledge of scientific thought was the books of Komatsu Sakyo-sensei. On the other hand my base-knowledge of criticism thought was those of Mr. Odajima Takashi.
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Now I booked the book, whose title is "Walking with looking up and drinking" at the city library.
From the viewpoint, I am also an "alcoholics" even just I stopped drinking". It is said that this situation is like stop a ball on the slope.
I really scare the above phrase that he had left.
"Fools learn from experience, and wises learn from history" was Bismarck's maxim; however,
"I wonder if the wise can no longer learn from history."
I come to think so.
The two that immediately come to mind are "Corona" and "Ukraine."
unpredictable events that are not within the scope of prediction of even so-called experts, let alone laypeople like myself, have occurred and continue to happen.
For example -- "My historical perception of the war with the United States in the Pacific War, that 'Our country should have just raised the white flag and surrendered,' is now ongoing, leading me to wonder, 'Was that the case?'"
If I were to learn from history, such questions would not arise.
(The military superpower doesn't always win, as evidenced by the U.S. in Vietnam and Afghanistan.)
The situation in Ukraine today is too different from that in Japan. Still, including that situation, I think 'the right answer cannot be derived from experience or history.
Or rather, 'Is there a right answer to begin with?'
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I'll leave you with a few keywords in case you reread this diary next year and wonder, "Why am I talking in such an abstract and philosophical way?" so I will leave some keywords here case there will be a question mark in your mind.
"The Wagner Rebellion."
" Does International Law Apply to Civil War?" (*1)
(*)https://www.cao.go.jp/pko/pko_j/organization/researcher/atpkonow/article063.html
Apparently, "At present, no entity transcends national sovereignty" (*2).
(*2)https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/irrc-873-vite.pdf